A Conversation On Financial Markets Risk, Political Risk, & Their Interplays Through Political Event Betting Markets In The US

In this conversation, we will explore the potential financial market uncertainties due to the upcoming presidential election as well as the impacts of the approval of political event betting in the US. Recently, Kashi Market won approval to list contracts related to US elections and other political events. The key questions that we will explore include:

• What are the historical market volatilities around US presidential elections?
• What are the unique risks due to the election this November?
• What are the appellate court decisions that allow for betting on political events in the US like those on Kalshi Market?
• What are the potential social benefits and risks of allowing betting on political events, and how might these be addressed?

Massimo Cutuli the Chief Financial Risk Officer of the Options Clearing Corp, which is the largest Clearing House in the world that guarantees options trading. Previously, he was the Chief Risk Officer for Optiver, USA, and has also held the Head of Risk position for Citadel Securities; worked in banking at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Massimo served as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and London Clearinghouse risk committees. He received a BS in Aerospace Engineering and an MS in Space Science (University of London), an MS in Aerospace Engineering (Cornell University) and MS in Operations Research (Columbia University).

David Ye is currently a faculty member of Data Science (MIDS) and Math Department at Duke University. His current teaching and research focus is Quantitative Finance with a focus on applying Data Science to problems in Finance. Previously, David had over 25+ years of industry experience in a wide range of financial firms including commercial bank, investment bank, custodian/trust bank, insurance company, and central clearing corporation. David has deep experiences in risk management as the Chief Risk Offices for several global companies including Nomura (Americas), State Street Global Markets and Guardian Life Insurance.

Nick Eubank is an Assistant Research Professor in the Duke Social Science Research Institute (SSRI). His research is focused on understanding two aspects of political accountability: the determinants of citizen capacity to hold politicians accountable, and elite strategies for subverting mechanisms of accountability.

This event is co-sponsored by Duke MIDS, Duke Department of Mathematics, & Duke RESILE